Posted on by rjonakait

The Texas Tragedy

Does Trump bear responsibility for deaths in the Texas floods? Do Elon and Doge? They recklessly slashed government, including the National Weather Service. (Funny how Musk was a genius when upending departments, but now, according to Trump, he is off the rails. Mature people don’t change that radically in only a few months.) We do know that the NWS was understaffed in Texas, but we can’t know how results would have been different if positions had not been vacant.

The harm from Trump policies will often be unknowable. How much will farmers and others be hurt by cuts to weather forecasting? We can’t really know.

Trump, Musk, and Kennedy, Jr., have decimated the National Institutes of Health. We can assume discoveries will not be made that would have been made without the chainsaw, but we don’t know what those discoveries would have been.

Trump is transforming FEMA. Will recoveries from natural disasters be…well, more disastrous? That may be almost impossible to measure.

Sometimes we might be able to assess damage. How have telephone wait times increased after cuts to the IRS? But often the measurable harm will not be known for a while. IRS revenue collection may drop but that will take time to learn. Sometimes the harm will happen only after the Trump presidency ends (and IT WILL END). We won’t know about deaths or illnesses from the vaccine and other health policies of the HHS. Already consequential, the full effects of the decimation of USAID will not be known for a long time.

Sometimes the consequences will be hidden from us. Tariffs are akin to a sales tax, but unlike the sales tax, the consumer will not see the explicit cost of tariffs at checkout. We will only see the new list price of the product. And we won’t see some business practices that tariffs encourage. For example: A friend runs an upscale sportswear company. During Trump’s first term, he made shirts in China for the American market. Trump instituted a fifteen percent duty on such goods. The retailer for the friend’s product had been charging $145 for each shirt. A fifteen percent increase would have been $167. The retailer, however, decided to use the tariff to raise the price to $185. That extra $18 is also a consequence of the tariffs, but its cause is invisible to the consumer.

Sometimes trickery is used for dampening negative consequences. So, for example, Trump’s recent legislation is expected to remove many people from Medicaid. Rural hospitals that depend on Medicaid are expected to close, bringing suffering to many small communities. If the cuts to Medicaid are a good idea, they are a good idea now. Nevertheless, that Big (Beautiful? Bullshit?) Bill delays their implementation. The delay is not for any sensible policy reason. Instead, Trump and the Republicans anticipate a backlash, but they hope it won’t peak until after the midterm elections and will have waned by 2028.

This might make you (even more) cynical about Trump and Republicans, but my cynicism extends deeper. We don’t know whether more staffing at the National Weather Service or a different warning system might possibly have lessened the Texas tragedy, but we should find out. This is a job for Congress. Hearings should be held seeking information about what happened and about possible changes going forward. The goal should be to see whether new legislation is warranted. But Republicans who control Congress will not hold such hearings for fear they may suggest that Trump made mistakes. Moreover, if such hearings were held, the Democrats would not seek information but use them to score partisan points. They would be like Jim Jordan in a clip I recently saw. He was questioning New York Governor Kathy Hochul. He asked if she knew how a local sheriff had responded to an immigration issue. She predictably ducked the question, and he predictably insisted that she answer. It was all a charade. Jordan knew the answer to his question. In a real hearing, our congresspeople would be seeking information by asking questions where they did not already know the answer. When was the last time you saw that?

We should be trying to learn from the Texas tragedy, but that won’t come from Congress, for, unfortunately, this Congress is not there to solve problems.

Posted on by rjonakait

Thoughts on the Recent Bombings of Iran

The Vice President appropriately praised the personnel who carried out the Iranian bombings. That seems odd. For months this administration has proclaimed that previous administrations have decimated the military. The personnel, however, were trained before Trump 2.0. The planes and the bombs were conceived, developed, and constructed well before he took office. Trump may have made the decision to bomb, but the capability to do the mission belongs to previous administrations. Nevertheless, I don’t expect to hear apologies.

We are unlikely to hear anything as self-effacing from Trump as John F. Kennedy said: “Those of you who regard my profession of political life with some disdain should remember that it made it possible for me to move from being an obscure lieutenant in the United States Navy to Commander-in-Chief in fourteen years with very little technical competence.” And yet, Trump assuredly shares Kennedy’s professed lack of technical competence.

While the military has been praised, no such praise has been extended to our intelligence services. In fact, they have been disparaged. Nevertheless, Iran has steadfastly maintained that it was not developing nuclear weapons, and we have no reports from U.S. Intelligence that an Iranian nuclear bomb was imminent. However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Iran was only weeks away from an operational bomb. Of course, we do not know what intelligence supports the assertion, but we do know that Bibi has uttered that “weeks away” mantra many times over the last decade. It would seem that Trump accepts Israeli intelligence, or at least Netanyahu’s assertions, over our own intelligence. I find it troubling that we seem to have outsourced our intelligence to a foreign country.

It is also troubling that no intelligence — U.S. or Israeli — was presented to Congress prior to the attack. Moreover, the War Powers Act of 1973 might suggest that letting Congress know about a planned bombing of another country is, at the very least, a courtesy. Gosh, even Bush Jr. brought the invasion of Iraq to a vote in Congress. The intelligence was wrong, but…

We will soon start to get reports about how much the bombing has impeded Iran’s ability to build a nuclear bomb. Will the assertions be based on U.S. or Israeli intelligence? Why should we trust either of them?

We bombed Iran even though that country presented no imminent threat to our territorial safety. The decision fits in with an “Israel First” policy, and the operation should increase Israeli safety, but it also seems to signal that we will give an even freer rein to Israel in Gaza and the West Bank. If we so blithely accept Israel’s assertions about existential threats that we bomb Iran, must we also unquestioningly accept what they say about the importance to them of Gaza and the West Bank?

The bombings are expected to disrupt oil flows and distributions. It certainly will if Iran retaliates by successfully closing off the Strait of Hormuz. World oil prices will increase. Russia routinely benefits whenever oil costs more. Was strengthening Russia part of the goal?

Iran can retaliate by attacking our military assets in the Middle East, but it does not have the power to attack the territorial United States except, perhaps, in isolated acts of physical sabotage. It may have the ability for cyberattacks on our infrastructure, such as our antiquated power grid that the present administration ignores. However, the source of a cyberattack is often unclear. If there are such actions in the coming weeks, Iran will undoubtedly be blamed. This is an opportunity for other countries who want a weaker America to launch cyberattacks against us with Iran as their cover. And yes, I am thinking about Russia again.

Our officials say that they are only trying to end the Iranian nuclear bomb program and are not seeking regime change. I understand why they say that. During the campaign Trump and his acolytes were adamant that we were going to be out of the nation-building business, and yet, regime change inevitably leads to nation-building. In short, the proclamation that we do not seek a change is likely a lie. Some reports suggest that the Iranian people are fed up with the Ayatollah and want regime change. Is this true? And what would regime change in Iran look like? An autocrat often replaces an autocrat. Moreover, change often comes only after an ugly civil war in which other countries intervene directly or covertly. Change often spawns terrorist groups such as ISIS. What are the odds that a new Iran would be peaceful and cooperative?

We say that we seek to negotiate with either the new or the old Iran. If you were Iran, would you trust negotiations with the United States? You might conclude that nuclear weapons are the most sensible protection for yourself.

Other consequences of the bombing:

Language precision has suffered another blow. (It has already been almost fatally undermined by Trump himself.) Now comes Vance who says that we are not at war with Iran, but with Iran’s nuclear program. Huh? Trump says that we “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capacity. The next day the administration says that Iran’s nuclear ability has been “severely damaged.” Making me wonder again about the quality of a Yale education, Vance says he does not understand the difference.

Did DOGE have a role in the planning for the bombing to prevent the ever-present threat of waste, fraud, and abuse?

When all is said and done, isn’t it a good thing if the bombing operation actually has prevented Iran from getting nuclear weapons?

Posted on by rjonakait

Snippets

I watch a lot of athletics on TV, perhaps too much. This viewing includes women sports, but I am planning to give up watching women’s college basketball, volleyball, and softball. They are too dominated by transgender women to be enjoyable and safe. Or at least that is the impression I get from watching too much Fox News and listening to too many of our politicians.

We know that many must study little if Shelley is right when he said, “The more we study the more we discover our ignorance.”

With DOGE ripping apart the country, I have mentally started calling our president Donlon Trusk.

A wise person said, “It seems unreasonable, but the head never begins to swell until the mind stops growing.”

A social media post has said that the Russians recruited Donald Trump decades ago. Trump may merely be a fanboy of Vladimir Putin; however, many of Trump’s actions, including the destruction of America’s standing in the world, could come from a Putin playbook. There is more plausibility in the conspiracy theory that Trump is a Russian asset than many others that take root. Instead of a Manchurian candidate, do we have a Siberian president?

“I don’t lie. I improve on life.” (Perhaps) Josephine Baker.

I asked Murphy what he did for St. Patrick’s Day. He said, “Nothing. St. Pat’s is a day for amateurs.”

Qatar is often mentioned on TV, but it is pronounced in different ways. What is the correct way to say it?

My friendly boss with Irish roots had moved to the suburbs. He invited us to a wine tasting at his new parish church. After it ended, we retired to his new home across the street. We were joined by other Irish Americans who had been at the winetasting. As is usual when you put alcohol and Irish together, singing begins. An Irish Lullaby. Danny Boy. It was getting late. We were looking to get out of there since it was long drive home. We were about to stand up when a guitar appeared in the hands of a thin man. He looked around until the now raucous group got quiet. He started to sing. I have little familiarity with the genre, but it was an Irish protest song. He sang beautifully. If you weren’t crying by the end, you should have been.

I occasionally play Spelling Bee, an online game from the New York Times. You are to make words of at least four letters from seven letters with six arrayed in a circle around a seventh letter. Each word must contain that central letter. The game somewhere has an official word list, which I have never seen, but sometimes an entry that I know is a valid word, often a scientific or technical term, is rejected. However, on occasion I spot a word that I know does not exist, but I believe it should. For example, pignic: eating too much on the lawn.

Even though the administration is trying to tear down universities in the name of fighting antisemitism, it occurs to me that one of the flaws of the current administration is that it does not have enough Jewish people.

“He who blesses his neighbor with a loud voice, rising early in the morning, will be counted as cursing.” Proverbs.

Posted on by rjonakait

Snippets

Hey, DOGE, a suggestion for you. A news report said that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has government housing. We taxpayers are on the hook for a $49,000 paint job and six figures for renovations. Why? Hegseth has a salary of $235,000, almost three times the median household income in this country. People making as much as Hegseth are responsible for their own housing. Why shouldn’t government workers be, too? DOGE, get an executive order selling off all that housing. How much could we save?

Part of the renovations are apparently for secure information facilities. What? I thought Hegseth was adamant about not working remotely. I assume that he has secure facilities at his office. Is he planning to work at home instead of the office?

Along the same lines, DOGE. How many government workers have a car and driver? We ordinary taxpayers, even if we make $235,000, have to handle our own commutes. Why are government workers better than we are? How much can be saved by jettisoning the cars and drivers? (And do those who have a car and driver pay income tax on the value of that service?)

A wise person said: “There should be a happy medium between government running private business and private business running the government.”

I assumed it was on old sign that read: “Full Service Unisex Hair Care.” Hasn’t Trump outlawed all unisex activities?

We do have savings as the administration follows Mark Twain, who said, “Truth is such a precious article let us all economize in its use.”

I could never be a birder if you have to be able to say “blue-footed booby” without suppressing a smirk or a chuckle. Or “tufted titmouse.”

With all the brouhaha over that gulf, I wonder: Do the French call it the English Channel?

Before going to sleep, I always walk slowly backwards around my bed three times. I do this because it keeps the polar bears away. I know this works because I have never had a nighttime ursine invasion. Some of Trump’s executive orders remind me of my ritual. For example, one EO forbids undocumented aliens from receiving federal benefits. However, before the recent order, the undocumented did not qualify for any such funding, and nothing indicates that the migrants have gotten anything substantial from fraud. In other words, before the order, no federal benefits for the undocumented, and after the order, no benefits for the undocumented. Even so, I expect that the success of the order will be touted. Another example: Trump flamboyantly signed an executive order to end Covid vaccine mandates in public K-12 schools. However, schools do not now have such mandates. I still expect the fanfaronade about the order’s success. And still my slow backward walk has kept the polar bears out of my bedroom. However, I am searching for a way to bring giant pandas in to snuggle up with at night.

Every year—well, three out of four years—I purge and fast on February 29, 30, and 31.