Posted on by rjonakait

Snippets

The spouse is the leader of the discussion of Sing, Unburied, Sing by Jesmyn Ward. Someone announced she would not attend because they could not make it through the novel even though it won the National Book Award, was on yearly top ten lists, and high on the 100 best books of this century. With its themes of Black and interracial families and the legacy of slavery in southern prisons and much more, this is the book that Pete Hegseth would ban, if he hasn’t already, from the service academies. The woman who pulled out of the book group was a Trumpista. The spouse and I could not help but think that it was the subject matter, not the quality, of the book that was the withdrawal’s motivating factor. With the attacks on DEI, some people may feel that it is unpatriotic even to read Jesmyn Ward. And so it is that America dumbs down.

With summer coming on, I wonder: “If nature is so truly wonderful, then why didn’t she make the mosquito a vegetarian?”

Many political ads last year bemoaned the fentanyl crisis that the ads maintained resulted from a porous southern border. This never made sense. Border patrol officials knew that nearly 90% of the fentanyl that entered from Mexico came in at legal crossings. Furthermore, most apprehended couriers were American citizens, which, of course, makes sense. If you were running the drug smuggling operation, wouldn’t you think that a Mexican or Honduran would be more likely stopped and searched at the border than an American citizen? It was clear that “securing” the border would do little to change our fentanyl crisis. And, of course, the laws of supply and demand mean someone will find a way to bring the opioid into the country as long as there is a market for it. Meanwhile, it turns out that last year while our southern border was so easy to cross according to so many pundits, opioid deaths dropped precipitously. It will be interesting to see with all the government cuts to all sorts of services what will happen to the death rate even with a “secure” border.

I would like to live in a world where data trump beliefs, and ideology does not trump facts. Some days I am an optimist.

A wise person said: An optimist is someone with little experience.

The big, beautiful bill will leave us under a mountain of new debt, which Trump and his supporters now don’t seem to care about. I am reminded of what Kurt Andersen wrote in Evil Geniuses: The Unmaking of America, A Recent History (2020). He reported that neoconservative Irving Kristol said that if tax cuts for the rich “leave us with a fiscal problem,” that is fine because that would force conservative “opponents to tidy up afterwards.”

With the warmer weather, I am again about to confront one of my biggest golf troubles: I stand too close to the ball after I hit it.

Posted on by rjonakait

Twelve Ways to Win

In the last post, “77 Million,” I wrote that the real story of the last presidential election was not the switch to Trump, which was not large, but the “lost votes,” the many who had voted for Biden but did not vote at all this year. A story in a Pennsylvania news source neatly illustrates the point. A Philadelphia district that is overwhelmingly Black had shifted to Trump, but in that district Trump had gotten only three more votes than he had in 2020. Harris, however, had received 81 fewer ballots than Biden had four years earlier.

After the previous post, a friend said that he agreed with my analysis but wondered what my explanation was for the lost votes. I thought more about that and realized that I did not have a single overarching explanation but only a collection of partial possibilities. Here are some of them.

One. Donald Trump is a remarkable politician. His dominant qualities—liar, ignoramus, bully, fearmonger, bad economist, embarrassing dancer—should make him a laughingstock, but despite these characteristics, or perhaps because of them, he connects deeply with a broad swath of Americans. They are devoted to him like teenage girls to a K-pop boy band. There’s a major difference, however: American devotion to him has not been a passing fancy; we don’t seem to grow out of it. Other presidents—Reagan, Clinton, Obama—had devoted admirers, but not like Trump. To me the attraction is inexplicable, but I recognize his draw.

Two. Americans have short memories, and Trump benefited. In 2020, almost all voters held strong and accurate images of the Trump presidency. Despite the pandemic, the economy was about the same as it was under Obama, with some indicators stronger and some weaker than in the previous four years. (E.g., inflation was low under Trump, but it was even lower under Obama.) However, all was not well in the country. Crime had started to increase under Trump which was disturbing. Life expectancy had started to fall even apart from the pandemic. The border was a problem, and Trump had failed to fix it. Even Obama had deported more people than Trump had. Trump’s wall seemed a joke. His attempts to erase the Affordable Care Act were disturbing. Deficits skyrocketed. He played footsy with dictators, which was disturbing. His many grift-like actions were disturbing. A lot of things were disturbing, but that was all forgotten four years later. Moreover, of all the bad things that were predicted to happen because of his four years did not happen. For example, Biden continued the China tariffs that liberals had decried ruinous. Biden continued Trump border policies that were labeled ineffectual and heartless. More and more politicians supported the border wall. Trump was still the same Trump, but to many he did not look as bad as he had in 2020.

Three. Americans are not only forgetful; they are ignorant. Americans want simple answers, and Trump benefited. The border problem has many causes. We need a reform of our immigration laws. We need more border agents. We need more immigration judges. The problem is fueled by criminal gangs and political unrest in various countries. The problem is exacerbated by poor economies in various countries. It is intensified by the wider spread of media coverage that tells more and more people that they can find a better life if they can get to the U.S. And so on. Americans don’t want to confront such complexities. They don’t want to concede that the problem has been years in the making. They want a simple answer. And to many, the border problem is simply the fault of the Biden-Harris administration. (When conservatives refer to 2017 to 2021, they never say the Trump-Pence administration.)

More simplistic thinking follows: If the border were tightened, for example, we could tackle our fentanyl problem. (We have already forgotten that Trump promised to solve the fentanyl crisis when he ran in 2016.) Inflation. Well, inflation was the consequence of many complex events, but Americans didn’t want to understand that. Neither did we want to know that many developed countries had a worse inflation problem than we had, and that perhaps our inflation, bad as it was, was not so bad. Americans did not want to hear that gas and oil trade in an international market, that supply chains are international, and that the U.S. government does not control these markets. Instead, we want a simple answer, and that answer was that inflation was the fault of the Biden-Harris administration.

Four. Fear sells, and Trump benefited. Many campaigns have tried to make the electorate fearful about the consequences of the other side’s actions. In the first election I paid attention to, JFK stressed a “missile gap” at a time when nuclear concerns were high. (That gap seemed to disappear once he took office.) This year Trump and his acolytes did a much better job of spreading fear than the other side—fear of crime generally, fear of immigrant crime more specifically, fear of immigration, fear of fentanyl, fear of transgender people. That last fear should not be underestimated. For most of the election season, I was in Pennsylvania, a swing state for the presidential election with a closely contested Senate seat and several close House races. It seemed as if every third political ad — and the ads ran nonstop — by those on the right brought up Democratic support for trans people. They damned Harris for supporting government payment for gender-transforming operations. They hinted that Democratic candidates were going to allow trans people to play girls’ sports and use girls’ bathrooms. This country may have become more accepting of gays, but many, many Americans see trans people as unsettling and dangerous. Trump and his supporters benefited.

Five. The media has had a fixation on Trump, and Trump benefited. News sources, including, or perhaps especially, liberal ones reported at length whatever Trump was doing or saying. This was not totally surprising. In the run-up to the election, Trump was on the receiving end of multiple lawsuits including his conviction of 34 felony counts in New York. Nevertheless, this coverage overwhelmed coverage of Biden’s accomplishments (how many of us can summarize what is in the Inflation Reduction Act?) and explanations for problems like rising prices or the border. Since memory-impaired Americans seemed less concerned about the bizarre and dangerous behavior of Trump in 2024 than they were in 2020, the media did Trump a favor by focusing on him and not other things.

Six. We don’t know how to handle misinformation, and that benefited Trump, too. A higher percentage of misinformation came from the right than the left, and listeners ate it up.

Seven. Liberals and Democrats are poor at messaging. Who named it the Inflation Reduction Act? I know. I know. It was meant to reduce inflation, and it certainly did help. But it was hard not to hear it as a laugh line when the cost of milk and eggs and gas and mortgages was unusually high. Why didn’t they change the name and start focusing on all the good the Act accomplished?

Eight. But perhaps the chief cause of Trump’s (narrow) victory came throughout Biden’s term. While Americans were concerned about the border and inflation, Biden seemed indifferent to those problems. He might have been able to do little or nothing about them, but he should have appeared more concerned about them. He did not. And Trump won.

Similarly, every third ad against Harris I saw featured her being asked what she would have done differently from Biden. The response was the blank look of a doe in the headlights with the answer of “nothing.” It was powerful each time, and I saw it many, many times. Such a question had to be anticipated. How could she not have had a better immediate response? (Later on — too later on — she did.) There was also the never-ending clip of her crowing about the success of “Bidenomics.” Democrats should have been ready to explain what they were hoping to accomplish and what they had accomplished. They did not. And Trump won.

Nine. In the eyes of many Americans the Democratic Party does not stand for anything, and Trump benefited. Worse: Democrats were seen as the party that stood for trans rights, defunding the police, DEI, and critical race theory. But what else? For many, Democrats didn’t stand for anything that benefited “ordinary” people. Biden’s support for the United Auto Workers made no dint in this perception.

Ten. Covid hurt Trump in 2020. It helped him this year. His inconsistent and bizarre reactions to the pandemic were fresh four years ago. Now many have selective memories of that time. Unless personally affected, few seem to remember that one million American died. Instead, today Covid is remembered by many as a time of unnecessary school closings that harmed kids and strained parents; of unnecessary face masks; of governmental overreach on vaccines and social distancing. These are all reasons to distrust the government, and Trumps surrogates did a great job of reminding us of this distrust. At the same time, some see the Democrats as the ones who believe in big government of the sort that made Covid more hellish. Trump benefited.

Eleven. Many are not ready for a woman to be the Commander-in-Chief. We cannot discount that this country continues to have a strong strain of misogyny. Trump benefited big time from it.

Twelve. What do you think contributed? I’d love to hear them.

Posted on by rjonakait

Snippets

Pharmaceutical companies advertise heavily on some of the television shows I watch. The ads almost always have a disclaimer or warning. There’s one in particular that I don’t understand. It’s the one that says don’t take the drug if you are allergic to it. How would you know about the allergy if you don’t take drug? And if you did take it and had an allergic reaction to it, why would you take it again?

“Have something to say; say it; and stop when you are done.” Tryon Edwards.

The history book group just read Mirage: Napoleon’s Scientists and the Unveiling of Egypt by Nina Burleigh. I have read biographies of Napoleon, all decades ago, and remember little of his Egyptian foray. I did remember that he brought along scholars, savants, and that the French seized the Rosetta Stone, which ended up with the British. I did not remember, however, how much of a military fiasco the Egyptian invasion was for the French. Napoleon did not get his reputation as a great military leader from Egypt. But what surprised me most in Burleigh’s book was how much the French were decimated by the bubonic plague. I thought that the major effects of the plague were in the middle ages, but it devastated the French in Egypt from 1798 to 1800. (And while the trailer for Ridley Scott’s movie may show Napoleon firing a cannon at the pyramids, that never happened.)

“Blessed is the man who, having nothing to say, abstains from giving wordy evidence of the fact.” George Eliot.

In the “Is This Supposed to Be Good News?” Deparment: When tiny trash-can-looking containers were found in a local park, the word quickly went out that they had contained fentanyl. The authorities sprang into action and had a lab test them. The police reassured the nervous moms and reported that none of the containers had even traces of fentanyl. The police, apparently trying to be reassuring, said that the containers were just regular crack vials.

“If nobody ever said anything unless he knew what he was talking about, a ghastly hush would descend upon the earth.” Alan Herbert.

I missed the holiday again. November 25 is Evacuation Day, or least it used to be in New York City. The British occupied New York City for most of the Revolutionary War. They finally left on November 25, 1783, with a British flag nailed atop a pole. The first attempts to lower the offending cloth failed because the British had greased the flagpole. The American flag only replaced it after cleats were nailed into the pole. Evacuation Day became a New York City holiday, but it ended in 1916 as World War I made the U.S. especially close allies with the British and officials tried to erase ancient enmities. I think it would be nice to bring back the holiday, not because I care to commemorate again the Revolution or its end. Instead, various restrictive parking regulations get suspended in this city on holidays, and I am always in favor of that.

A wise person said: “It is easier to look wise than to talk wisely.”

I was paying for the cookie (or was it more than one?) at the fancy muffin and cookie place. Two teenaged girls poked their heads in. One asked, “Do you have vegan stuff?” The man sorting out my change replied, “No. Sorry.” The other girl persisted, “No vegan at all?” “No, sorry.” They huffed out. When I left a few moments later, I said, “No reason to be sorry.” With a gorgeous smile, he concluded, “I agree with you.”