Whither NIH and Life Expectancy?

My latest copy of Imprimis, a publication of the beloved-by-conservatives Hillsdale College, has the essay “Launching a Second Scientific Revolution” by Jay Bhattacharya, Director of the National Institutes of Health. He explains how he is reshaping the NIH to address what he says are three great problems that science now faces.

First, he notes that many published scientific results turn out not to be true (how many, he doesn’t say). Bhattacharya states that this problem can be addressed if NIH funds more replication research. This, he says, will make it easier to find whether scientific ideas have validity.

Second, he wants to address “scientific stagnation.” He maintains that present scientific research does not advance the ball as far as it once did: “For every dollar we spend on science, we get far less scientific advancement than we did over the past five decades. Another way of looking at this is that for every additional research paper in biomedicine, there are fewer improvements in health per paper.” He maintains that NIH funds “old ideas” too often and does not give enough grants to young scientists who are more likely to have new ideas. “The NIH needs to start funding ideas on the bleeding edge of science—ideas that may not work but that offer the greatest chance of advancing science.” [By the way, there has always been a category of grants funded under a heading something like “High Risk, High Payoff.”]

Finally, he believes that NIH funding is too concentrated in a small number of institutions. Good scientists at other places often have difficulty in competing for grants, and he seeks to change that by separating funding that goes to the researcher from funding that goes to institutions for equipment and other costs.

These are concerns worth addressing, but there are other problems at NIH that Bhattacharya apparently does not want to discuss. Thus, as the spouse wrote in the recent post of June 11 “Whither Biomedical Science?”, “Beginning in February 2025 the Trump administration terminated 2,300 ongoing research grants, amounting to cuts of almost $4 billion.” These cuts were made without any evidence that the grantees were failing to do the kind of good science that Bhattacharya claims to want. Nature Briefing reports today that grants that have passed peer review and are set for funding are being held up as they are scrutinized for terms such as “racism,” “fossil fuel,” or “sexual minority,” inclusion of which makes a grant “not clean.” What is the Director’s position on the administration’s slashing of scientific budgets and withholding grant funding on grounds that are different from Bhattacharya’s goals of replication and bleeding edge science?

The Director also suggests that science has moved backwards. He states that the scientific revolution took away from ecclesiastical authorities the power to decide scientific questions and placed scientific questions with a lot of smart scientists.  “Unfortunately,” he continues, “we find ourselves back in a situation today, as demonstrated a few years ago by the Covid lockdowns, mask mandates, and vaccination requirements, where a relatively small number of people—directors of government agencies like the National Institutes of Health, heads of international agencies like the World Health Organization, and editors of prestigious journals—have the power to say what is true or false in science.” At a minimum, this statement is ironical but more likely hypocritical.

As the June 11 post by the spouse makes clear, scientists no longer will control what scientific research will be undertaken. This time it is not an ecclesiastical authority in charge but a nonscientific, secular one. A Trump executive order requires that “discretionary awards must…demonstrably advance the President’s policy priorities.” The Office of Management and Budget (OMB), which has the task of implementing Executive Orders, has recently promulgated new rules that will apply to the funding of scientific grants. These prohibit money going to recipients that facilitate DEI. As the spouse said, “Technically, awards are granted to institutions, not to individuals. This means that even if a scientific study has nothing to do with DEI, funding can be withheld if the formal recipient of the grant (e.g., a university) engages in something that is determined to be in violation of the administration’s DEI policies. This appears to be designed to punish institutions that are in presumed non-compliance at the expense of what might be relevant and meritorious science.”

Furthermore, “and more insidiously, the OMB regulations would give final approval authority not to a scientific advisory council, but rather to a political appointee whose job it will be to ensure that grant applications are consistent with administrative priorities, do not espouse ‘anti-American’ (undefined) ideas, and are in the ‘national interest’ (undefined). This can and will lead to decisions based on political considerations (undefined), not scientific merit.” What should we make of a Director of the NIH who is outraged at vaccination mandates urged by scientists and health professionals during a pandemic that killed millions but who now serves a system that gives the final approval for scientific research to nonscientist political appointees using vague guidelines that are not scientific?

Bhattacharya also praised the NIH. “Almost every modern advance in biomedicine has, at its root, an NIH investment. NIH is, by far, the single largest public funder of biomedical research in the world, providing 85 percent of funding in every single area of biomedicine.” That’s great, but, of course, that may not be true in the future as the administration seeks to cut scientific budgets. After praising medical advances stemming from NIH activities, he, however, sounds a note of warning: “But when we look at life expectancy in the United States since 2010—and this is not the case in most European countries—we find that there has been no improvement despite the huge investments we have made in medical research.” He presents a graph comparing life expectancy in Sweden and the United States. People on average live nearly eight years longer in Sweden, which has shown a steady increase in that expectancy. The U.S. has had major dips in life expectancy starting in 2018 and again in 2025. (Bhattacharya does not mention who was president when those decreases occurred.) He goes on to state: “We have huge chronic disease problems. We can solve them—but we can only solve them if we fix science.”

The notion, however, that inadequate science is the reason for the difference in life expectancy rates between Sweden and the United States is balderpiffle. The results of NIH and other scientific research are published and available to all. It is not some sort of science available to Swedes but not Americans that allows the Swedish to live longer. If Bhattacharya wants to understand the differences in Swedish and American life expectancies, he should examine other aspects of Swedish government and society.

Swedes do not have to worry about paying doctors. The healthcare system is government funded. Swedes do not have to worry about going bankrupt if sick. Incapacitated Swedes continue to get wages if certified ill by a doctor.

Sweden provides for paid parental leave up to sixteen months. Sweden provides for cash benefits to families with children under sixteen as well as housing allowances for families. It provides public daycare for children under seven. These are some of the reasons that the infant mortality rate in Sweden is about one-third of America’s.

Education is free from preschool through university. Swedes don’t suffer from the stress of educational debt.

Poverty is lower and less entrenched than in the United States. Swedes have shorter working hours with generous vacations and holidays. They are eligible for old age social security at sixty-one. All this correlates with longer life expectancies.

Sweden does have one of the highest tax rates in the world, but it has led to more than longer life expectancies. Surveys of the happiest people always have the Scandinavian countries, including Sweden, with their high tax rates at the top of the list, far outranking the United States.

If Bhattacharya wants longer American life expectancies, he should be looking first to reforming our healthcare, welfare, education, and social support systems. But, of course, people in this conservative administration will not last long if they advocate reforms to make us more like Sweden, even if we would be healthier and live longer.

Instead, we have cut the budget for SNAP, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which helps people with lower incomes to buy groceries essential for health and nutrition. The One Big Beautiful Bill has cuts of up to $1 trillion to Medicaid with millions of our poorest neighbors projected to lose coverage. Medicare changes will increase costs or reduce access for many. Subsidies for health insurance have been cut causing many to abandon health insurance altogether. And unless changes are made to the program, social security benefits will see a reduction as early as 2032. These “reforms” are not the kind that will decrease our life expectancy gap with civilized nations but will only increase the divide.

Who Are These ICE People Anyway?

Two related but separate federal agencies are the primary enforcers of our immigration laws. One is the Customs and Border Protection Agency (CBP) whose diverse responsibilities include the collection of import duties and the regulation of international trade. It examines people and cargo at ports of entry for such concerns as smuggling and the curtailment of the spread of harmful pests. This agency also protects and patrols our Mexican and Canadian borders. It is part of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). CBP does not have primary responsibility for the enforcement of immigration laws within the country.

That falls to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency (ICE), which is also part of DHS. ICE is headed by Acting Director Todd Lyons. ICE has not had a Senate-confirmed director since 2017.

ICE has two primary components: the Homeland Security Investigations Division, which is concerned with transnational crimes, and the Enforcement and Removal Operations Division, which enforces immigration laws within the country. While ICE does not patrol the border, increasingly the border patrol (CBP) has been enforcing immigration laws away from the border, including in Minneapolis.

Under the One Big Beautiful Bill, ICE became the largest, most well-funded law enforcement agency in American history.

Although for a hundred years states tried to regulate immigration, the Supreme Court in the 1870s held that immigration and naturalization were solely under federal jurisdiction. Although immigration is a federal responsibility, ICE seeks the help of states and cities in immigration enforcement. Some jurisdictions, however, are reluctant to provide that help and claim status as a “sanctuary” city. While there is no legal definition of a sanctuary city, the term usually refers to a locality that refuses to cooperate or limits its cooperation with federal immigration authorities. Moreover, the use of the term “sanctuary” is misleading. An undocumented person does not get sanctuary from immigration laws by residing in a sanctuary city. The undocumented can be deported wherever they are in this country.

ICE officials have sought local assistance in several different ways. ICE might ask cities and counties to tell ICE when the localities have encountered an undocumented immigrant. Sanctuary cities usually do not honor these requests. They don’t share their databases with the federal officials. Some localities even forbid the collection of information about immigration status.

ICE often asks to interview people in local jails. Non-sanctuary places may freely allow that. Sanctuary localities, however, may not permit it at all or allow it only if the inmates voluntarily sign a consent form informing them that they don’t have to talk to ICE and are waiving that right.

ICE also lodges requests, called administrative detainers, asking to be informed when an inmate that ICE believes is deportable is to be released from a state or local lockup. Sanctuary cities differ in their responses. Many will tell ICE about the release of someone who has been convicted of a violent offense but not otherwise. Some sanctuaries will not tell ICE about the release of any inmate.

Trump officials suggest that this non-cooperation is illegal. That is not true. No law requires states and cities to cooperate with ICE, and no law probably can require that. That conclusion is based on the 1997 Supreme Court case, Printz v. United States.

At that time a federal law required “local chief law enforcement officers” to perform background checks on prospective handgun purchasers. The Supreme Court concluded that requirement was unconstitutional given the established constitutional principle that state legislatures are not subject to federal direction. The Supreme Court extended that maxim to local law enforcement, which the Court held is also not subject to federal direction. The Constitution does not empower the federal government to compel state law enforcement officers to fulfill the national government’s federal tasks. Assuming these principles still apply, the federal government cannot commandeer localities to enforce immigration laws.

The administration and other right wingers say, however, that sanctuary cities are making their communities unsafe by not helping deportations. Conservative media often scroll names of deportees along with the heinous crimes they supposedly committed. Trump’s press secretary has averred that the sanctuary jurisdictions are endangering their citizens by giving a safe haven to dangerous criminals. Trumpian attacks on the sanctuary states and cities are, therefore, “focused on protecting American communities from criminal aliens.”

Are the ICE actions focused on dangerous criminals? A fact-checking organization says that the administration has not provided enough information to substantiate that claim. The fact checkers say that the percentage of those detained without a criminal conviction or charges doubled in 2025 to 40%. However, most of the convictions are not for violent felony offenses. The Cato Institute has looked at the records of ICE detainees and concluded that a mere 5% of them had violent felony convictions. The New York Times also concluded from similar data that 7% had violent felony convictions.

Are sanctuary cities endangering their citizenry? Sanctuary jurisdictions maintain that their lack of cooperation is not only legal but is good policy. They point out that in sanctuary cities local resources are properly allocated to local priorities, not to enforcing laws that are the responsibility of the federal government.  Sanctuary cities also maintain that they are safer because of their policies.

The jurisdictions highlight that deportation before a verdict or punishment, which often happens in non-sanctuary jurisdiction, deprives communities of the deterrence provided by the criminal justice system. Sending a person to his home country without serving a sentence here in the U.S. does not act as a deterrent to others.

The sanctuary jurisdictions also want undocumented people to feel comfortable cooperating with the local police. Without that cooperation crimes will not be reported and prosecuted. Undocumented immigrants won’t come forward to report crimes or become witnesses if, as a consequence, they will be deported.  Criminals, whether citizens or not, will go free, and the community will be more crime-ridden.

Furthermore, a city may be healthier, safer, and more community-friendly if undocumented people are reasonably comfortable interacting with government authorities — not just police, but also schools, hospitals, clinics, employment agencies, and housing authorities.

Sanctuary cities point to study after study showing that sanctuary cities are safer than other cities and that sanctuary cities have, on average, more vibrant economies than non-sanctuary jurisdictions. The Trump administration, as it often does, avoids or denies the accuracy of such studies.

Finally, is there sanctuary for the undocumented in churches and elsewhere? President Obama issued orders that protected immigrants in hospitals, churches, courtrooms, funerals, weddings, and schools. Trump reversed that order. That there was an order and that it was reversed tells us something. We may have an image of Quasimodo swinging on a Notre Dame bell rope with Esmeralda under his arm and crying “Sanctuary,” but there is no accepted American legal principle that people are free from deportation (or prosecution for crimes) because they are sheltered in a house of worship.